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Level 21 Tropical Cyclone Editors

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Last Updated: 06 December 2020

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General | Latest Info

A TROPICAL Cyclone, also called a Typhoon or Hurricane, intense circular STORM that originates over warm TROPICAL oceans and is characterized by low atmospheric pressure, high winds, and heavy rain. Drawing energy from the sea surface and maintaining its strength as long as it remains over warm water, TROPICAL Cyclone generates winds that exceed 119 km per hour. In extreme cases, winds may exceed 240 km per hour, and gusts may surpass 320 km per hour. Accompanying these strong winds are torrential rains and devastating phenomenon know as STORM surge, elevation of the sea surface that can reach 6 metres above normal levels. Such a combination of high winds and water makes cyclones a serious hazard for coastal areas in TROPICAL and subtropical areas of the world. Every year during late summer months, cyclones strike regions as far apart as the Gulf Coast of North America, Northwestern Australia, and eastern India and Bangladesh. TROPICAL Cyclone Infographic showing anatomy of TROPICAL Cyclone. Encyclopdia Britannica, Inc. Hurricane Georges wrecked houseboats and bent palm trees in Key West, Florida, show effects of Hurricane Georges, September 25 1998. AP TROPICAL cyclones are known by various names in different parts of the world. In the North Atlantic Ocean and eastern North Pacific they are called hurricanes, and in the western North Pacific around the Philippines, Japan, and China, storms are referred to as typhoons. In the western South Pacific and Indian Ocean, they are variously referred to as SEVERE TROPICAL cyclones, TROPICAL cyclones, or simply cyclones. All these different names refer to the same type of STORM.

* Please keep in mind that all text is machine-generated, we do not bear any responsibility, and you should always get advice from professionals before taking any actions.

* Please keep in mind that all text is machine-generated, we do not bear any responsibility, and you should always get advice from professionals before taking any actions

Forecast for Epsilon

Epsilon rapidly strengthened into a major HURRICANE on its way to Bermuda and is now slowly weakening. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Bermuda where Tropical Storm Conditions are expected intermittently through this evening. According to the NHC, Tropical Storm Conditions are expected intermittently on Bermuda through this evening, when Epsilon is forecast to make its closest approach east of the island. Dangerous and POTENTIALLY life-threatening SURF and rip currents are expected along the coasts of Bermuda, Bahamas, Greater Antilles, Leeward Islands, East COAST of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. At 09: 00 UTC on October 21, Epsilon's Center was located about 415 km ESE from Bermuda. Its maximum sustain winds have decreased from 185 km / h to 175 km / h and additional weakening is forecast during the next few days. Epsilon was moving NW at 11 km / h and had an estimated minimum central pressure of 955 hPa. A turn toward North-northwest is expected later today, followed by northward motion tonight through Friday night, October 23, and acceleration toward northeast on Saturday. On forecast track, Center of Epsilon is forecast to make its closest approach to, but well to the East of, Bermuda later this evening. Large swells generated by Epsilon will affect Bermuda, Bahamas, Greater Antilles, Leeward Islands, East COAST of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening SURF and rip current conditions. Epsilon is expected to merge with the frontal zone and become extratropical by Tuesday, October 27. HURRICANE Epsilon at 10: 10 UTC on October 22 2020. Credit: NOAA / go-16, RAMMB / CIRA feature image: HURRICANE Epsilon at 09: 50 UTC on October 22 2020. Credit: NOAA / go-16, RAMMB / CIRA

* Please keep in mind that all text is machine-generated, we do not bear any responsibility, and you should always get advice from professionals before taking any actions.

* Please keep in mind that all text is machine-generated, we do not bear any responsibility, and you should always get advice from professionals before taking any actions

Anatomy of a cyclone

Ranking of tropical cyclone hits by country since 1970

RankNation
1China
2Philippines
3Japan
4Mexico
5United States of America
6Australia
7Taiwan
8Vietnam
9Madagascar
10Cuba

Hurricanes and typhoons redirect here. A Tropical Cyclone is the meteorological term for a storm system characterized by low pressure Center and thunderstorms that produce strong wind and flooding rain. A Tropical cyclone feeds on heat release when moist air rises and water vapor contain condenses. They are fuelled by different heat mechanisms than other cyclonic windstorms such as nor'easters, European windstorms, and polar lows, leading to their classification as warm core storm systems. Adjective Tropical refers to both the geographic origin of these systems, which form almost exclusively in Tropical regions of the globe, and their formation in Maritime Tropical Air masses. The noun Cyclone refers to such storms' cyclonic nature, with counterclockwise rotation in the Northern Hemisphere and clockwise rotation in the Southern Hemisphere. Depending on their location and strength, Tropical cyclones are referred to by various other names, such as Hurricane, Typhoon, Tropical Storm, cyclonic Storm, and Tropical depression. While tropical cyclones can produce extremely powerful winds and torrential rain, they are also able to produce high waves and damaging Storm Surge. They develop over large bodies of warm water, and lose their strength if they move over land. This is the reason coastal regions can receive significant damage from Tropical Cyclone, while inland regions are relatively safe from receiving strong winds. Heavy rains, however, can produce significant flooding inland, and Storm Surges can produce extensive coastal flooding up to 25 mi from the coastline. Although their effects on human populations can be devastating, tropical cyclones can also relieve drought conditions. They also carry heat and energy away from tropics and transport it towards temperate latitudes, which makes them an important part of the global atmospheric circulation mechanism. As a result, tropical cyclones help to maintain equilibrium in Earth's troposphere, and to maintain relatively stable and warm temperatures worldwide. Many Tropical cyclones develop when atmospheric conditions around weak disturbance in the atmosphere are favorable. Others form when other types of cyclones acquire tropical characteristics. Tropical systems are then moved by steering winds in the troposphere; if conditions remain favorable, tropical disturbance intensifies, and can even develop eye. On other end of the spectrum, if conditions around the system deteriorate or a tropical cyclone makes landfall, system weakens and eventually dissipates.

* Please keep in mind that all text is machine-generated, we do not bear any responsibility, and you should always get advice from professionals before taking any actions.

Table

IntensityCasesMedian DamagePotential Damage
Tropical/Subtropical Storm118less than $1,000,0000
Hurricane Category 145$33,000,0001
Hurricane Category 229$336,000,00010
Hurricane Category 340$1,412,000,00050
Hurricane Category 410$8,224,000,000250
Hurricane Category 52$5,973,000,000500

Table2

Local Time ZoneTime Adjustment (hours)
Atlantic Daylight Time (ADT)-3
Atlantic Standard Time (AST) Eastern Daylight Time (EDT)-4
Eastern Standard Time (EST) Central Daylight Time (CDT)-5
Central Standard Time (CST) Mountain Daylight Time (MDT)-6
Mountain Standard Time (MST) Pacific Daylight Time (PDT)-7
Pacific Standard Time (PST) Alaskan Daylight Time (ADT)-8
Alaskan Standard Time (ASA)-9
Hawaiian Standard Time (HAW)-10
New Zealand Standard Time (NZT) International Date Line Time (IDLE)+12
Guam Standard Time (GST) Eastern Australian Standard Time (EAST)+10
Japan Standard Time (JST)+9
China Coast Time (CCT)+8
West Australia Standard Time (WAST)+7
Russian Time Zone 5 (ZP5)+6
Russian Time Zone 4 (ZP4)+5
Russian Time Zone 3 (ZP3)+4
Bagdad Time (BT) Russian Time Zone 2(ZP2)+3
Eastern European Time (EET) Russian Time Zone 1(ZP1)+2
Central European Time (CET) French Winter Time (FWT) Middle European Time (MET) Swedish Winter Time (SWT) Middle European Winter Time (MEWT)+1
Western European Time (WET) Greenwich Mean Time ( GMT )0

Table4

CategoryMaximumMinimum
Named storms28 (2005)4 (1983)
Hurricanes15 (2005)2 (1982,2013)
Major Hurricanes8 (1950)0 (many times,2013 last)
Named storms9 (2004)0 (1990)
Hurricanes6 + (1916,1985,2004,2005)0 (many,2015)
Major hurricanes4 (2005)0 (many,2015)
Named storms28 (1992)8 (1977,2010)
Hurricanes16 (1990,1992,2014,2015)3 (2010)
Major hurricanes11 (2015)0 (many,2003)
Named storms39 (1964)14 (2010)
Typhoons26 (1964)5 (1999)
Super typhoons11 (1965,1997)1 (1999,2010)

Table5

CategoryAverageMaximumYearsMinimumYears
Named storms (including subtropical storms)11.728200541983
Hurricanes6.3>15200521982,2013
Major Hurricanes2.4720050many times, last 2013
USA landfalling hurricanes1.761985, 2004, 2005 +0many, last 2015
> USA landfalling major hurricanes0.6420050many, last 2015

Total number of tropical cyclone hits by country

RankNationHits
1United States of America268
2China230
3Philippines176
4Mexico134
5Japan133
6Cuba79
7Australia66
8Bahamas61
9Vietnam45
10Madagascar30
* Please keep in mind that all text is machine-generated, we do not bear any responsibility, and you should always get advice from professionals before taking any actions

The eye

A TROPICAL wave in the eastern Caribbean, designated 98L by NHC, WAS bringing heavy rains TO Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic on Wednesday. Flash flood watch WAS post FOR eastern Puerto Rico and Virgin Islands, where 2-4 inches of rain WAS predict. Satellite imagery shows that 98Ls heavy thunderstorm activity WAS disorganize, but the cloud pattern AT mid-levels WAS beginning TO show some spin, and the system appears poised TO take advantage of favorable conditions FOR Development: moderate WIND shear OF 10-20 knots, warm SSTs OF 29 DEGREES Celsius, and moist atmosphere. The top three models FOR predicting TROPICAL Cyclone genesis were giving 98L Strong support FOR Development by this weekend, when waves will likely be in the CENTRAL or southwestern Caribbean, between Jamaica and Nicaragua. A wave is predicted TO move west-southwestward and then westward AT about 5-10 mph under steering influence OF ridge OF high PRESSURE TO its NORTH, resulting in a potential threat TO Jamaica, Cayman Islands, and CENTRAL America this weekend. Conditions FOR Development will be favorable through Monday, WITH SHIPS model predicting light TO moderate WIND share OF 5-15 knots, warm SSTs OF 29-29. 5 DEGREES Celsius, and moist atmosphere WITH mid-Level relative humidity OF 65-70 %. ETA regained TROPICAL STORM status, heads FOR FLORIDA after causing devastation in CENTRAL America. These conditions ARE very similar to what Hurricane ETA experienced in its formative stages in the Caribbean in late October, and 98L is threat TO intensify into a Hurricane that will affect the same areas OF Caribbean impacted by Hurricane ETA. In particular, Nicaragua and Honduras, which were devastated by Hurricane ETA, appear AT great risk OF receiving heavy rains of 98L beginning on Monday. 0Z, 6Z, and 12Z Wednesday runs OF GFS model, which show 98L affecting Nicaragua as Hurricane on Tuesday, ARE quite concerning. At 1 PM EST Wednesday TROPICAL Weather Outlook, NHC gave 98L two-Day and five-Day odds OF Development OF 30 % and 80 %, respectively. The next name on the Atlantic list OF storms is Iota, ninth letter in the Greek alphabet. Website visitors can comment on Eye on STORM posts. Please read our Comments Policy prior to posting.

* Please keep in mind that all text is machine-generated, we do not bear any responsibility, and you should always get advice from professionals before taking any actions.

* Please keep in mind that all text is machine-generated, we do not bear any responsibility, and you should always get advice from professionals before taking any actions

The eyewall

Ranking of tropical cyclone hits by country since 1970

RankNation
1China
2Philippines
3Japan
4Mexico
5United States of America
6Australia
7Taiwan
8Vietnam
9Madagascar
10Cuba

A tropical cyclone has a diameter on scale of 100s * kilometers * and is comprised of several to dozens of convective storms. The strongest Hurricanes those of Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale 4 and 5, have winds of 131 mph [210 kph] And higher. Tropical cyclones require very low values of tropospheric vertical shear in order to form and grow. Tropical cyclones are purely Oceanic phenomenon. They die out over-land due to loss of moisture source, and have a lifetime that is measured in days. Hurricanes tend to cause much more destruction than tornadoes because of their size, duration and variety of ways to damage items. Destructive circular eyewalls in hurricanes can be tens of miles across, last hours and damage structures through Storm Surge, rainfall-cause flooding, as well as wind impacts. Hurricanes in the continental US cause on average about 3 billion per landfall and about 5 billion annually.

* Please keep in mind that all text is machine-generated, we do not bear any responsibility, and you should always get advice from professionals before taking any actions.

Table

IntensityCasesMedian DamagePotential Damage
Tropical/Subtropical Storm118less than $1,000,0000
Hurricane Category 145$33,000,0001
Hurricane Category 229$336,000,00010
Hurricane Category 340$1,412,000,00050
Hurricane Category 410$8,224,000,000250
Hurricane Category 52$5,973,000,000500

Table2

Local Time ZoneTime Adjustment (hours)
Atlantic Daylight Time (ADT)-3
Atlantic Standard Time (AST) Eastern Daylight Time (EDT)-4
Eastern Standard Time (EST) Central Daylight Time (CDT)-5
Central Standard Time (CST) Mountain Daylight Time (MDT)-6
Mountain Standard Time (MST) Pacific Daylight Time (PDT)-7
Pacific Standard Time (PST) Alaskan Daylight Time (ADT)-8
Alaskan Standard Time (ASA)-9
Hawaiian Standard Time (HAW)-10
New Zealand Standard Time (NZT) International Date Line Time (IDLE)+12
Guam Standard Time (GST) Eastern Australian Standard Time (EAST)+10
Japan Standard Time (JST)+9
China Coast Time (CCT)+8
West Australia Standard Time (WAST)+7
Russian Time Zone 5 (ZP5)+6
Russian Time Zone 4 (ZP4)+5
Russian Time Zone 3 (ZP3)+4
Bagdad Time (BT) Russian Time Zone 2(ZP2)+3
Eastern European Time (EET) Russian Time Zone 1(ZP1)+2
Central European Time (CET) French Winter Time (FWT) Middle European Time (MET) Swedish Winter Time (SWT) Middle European Winter Time (MEWT)+1
Western European Time (WET) Greenwich Mean Time ( GMT )0

Table4

CategoryMaximumMinimum
Named storms28 (2005)4 (1983)
Hurricanes15 (2005)2 (1982,2013)
Major Hurricanes8 (1950)0 (many times,2013 last)
Named storms9 (2004)0 (1990)
Hurricanes6 + (1916,1985,2004,2005)0 (many,2015)
Major hurricanes4 (2005)0 (many,2015)
Named storms28 (1992)8 (1977,2010)
Hurricanes16 (1990,1992,2014,2015)3 (2010)
Major hurricanes11 (2015)0 (many,2003)
Named storms39 (1964)14 (2010)
Typhoons26 (1964)5 (1999)
Super typhoons11 (1965,1997)1 (1999,2010)

Table5

CategoryAverageMaximumYearsMinimumYears
Named storms (including subtropical storms)11.728200541983
Hurricanes6.3>15200521982,2013
Major Hurricanes2.4720050many times, last 2013
USA landfalling hurricanes1.761985, 2004, 2005 +0many, last 2015
> USA landfalling major hurricanes0.6420050many, last 2015

Total number of tropical cyclone hits by country

RankNationHits
1United States of America268
2China230
3Philippines176
4Mexico134
5Japan133
6Cuba79
7Australia66
8Bahamas61
9Vietnam45
10Madagascar30
* Please keep in mind that all text is machine-generated, we do not bear any responsibility, and you should always get advice from professionals before taking any actions

Rainbands

Ranking of tropical cyclone hits by country since 1970

RankNation
1China
2Philippines
3Japan
4Mexico
5United States of America
6Australia
7Taiwan
8Vietnam
9Madagascar
10Cuba

The rainband is an area of rainfall where all clouds and precipitation are stretched out in long lines or band. Rainbands can be strict or convective. They are caused by differences in temperature. When seen on Weather radar, long narrow shape is called a banded structure. Rainbands in Tropical Cyclone are curve and may even spiral around the center of the cyclone. Tropical Cyclone rainbands include rain showers and thunderstorms. When this includes eyewall and eye, they make a hurricane or tropical storm. The size of rainbands around Tropical Cyclone helps to measure the cyclone's intensity. Rainbands that form near and ahead of cold fronts can be squall lines which can produce tornadoes. The shape of rainbands linked with cold fronts can be changed by mountains. Mountains block winds which can then form low-level barrier jet. Bands of thunderstorms can form when sea breeze and land breezes meet, if enough moisture is present. Sometimes sea breeze rainbands which are ahead of the cold front, can hide the location of the cold front itself. Rainbands in Extratropical Cyclones can cause large amounts of rain or snow. Behind Extratropical cyclones, rainbands can form downwind of large, warmer bodies of water such as the Great Lakes. If the air is cold enough, these rainbands can cause heavy snowfalls.


Tropical cyclones

See also: Dvorak technique and Tropical cyclone rainbands exist on edges of Tropical cyclones, and point towards the cyclone's center of low pressure. Rainbands within Tropical cyclones need moisture and low level pool of cooler air. Bands located 80 kilometres to 150 kilometres from the cyclone's center moved outward. They can cause heavy rains and squalls of wind, as well as tornadoes. Some rainbands move closer to the center, forming secondary, or outer, eyewall within intense hurricanes. Spiral rainbands are such a basic part of Tropical cyclones that in most Tropical cyclone basins, use of satellite-base Dvorak technique is the main method used to determine Tropical cyclone's maximum sustained winds. Using this method, area of spiral banding and difference in temperature between eye and eyewall is used to estimate maximum sustain wind and central pressure.

* Please keep in mind that all text is machine-generated, we do not bear any responsibility, and you should always get advice from professionals before taking any actions.

Table

IntensityCasesMedian DamagePotential Damage
Tropical/Subtropical Storm118less than $1,000,0000
Hurricane Category 145$33,000,0001
Hurricane Category 229$336,000,00010
Hurricane Category 340$1,412,000,00050
Hurricane Category 410$8,224,000,000250
Hurricane Category 52$5,973,000,000500

Table2

Local Time ZoneTime Adjustment (hours)
Atlantic Daylight Time (ADT)-3
Atlantic Standard Time (AST) Eastern Daylight Time (EDT)-4
Eastern Standard Time (EST) Central Daylight Time (CDT)-5
Central Standard Time (CST) Mountain Daylight Time (MDT)-6
Mountain Standard Time (MST) Pacific Daylight Time (PDT)-7
Pacific Standard Time (PST) Alaskan Daylight Time (ADT)-8
Alaskan Standard Time (ASA)-9
Hawaiian Standard Time (HAW)-10
New Zealand Standard Time (NZT) International Date Line Time (IDLE)+12
Guam Standard Time (GST) Eastern Australian Standard Time (EAST)+10
Japan Standard Time (JST)+9
China Coast Time (CCT)+8
West Australia Standard Time (WAST)+7
Russian Time Zone 5 (ZP5)+6
Russian Time Zone 4 (ZP4)+5
Russian Time Zone 3 (ZP3)+4
Bagdad Time (BT) Russian Time Zone 2(ZP2)+3
Eastern European Time (EET) Russian Time Zone 1(ZP1)+2
Central European Time (CET) French Winter Time (FWT) Middle European Time (MET) Swedish Winter Time (SWT) Middle European Winter Time (MEWT)+1
Western European Time (WET) Greenwich Mean Time ( GMT )0

Table4

CategoryMaximumMinimum
Named storms28 (2005)4 (1983)
Hurricanes15 (2005)2 (1982,2013)
Major Hurricanes8 (1950)0 (many times,2013 last)
Named storms9 (2004)0 (1990)
Hurricanes6 + (1916,1985,2004,2005)0 (many,2015)
Major hurricanes4 (2005)0 (many,2015)
Named storms28 (1992)8 (1977,2010)
Hurricanes16 (1990,1992,2014,2015)3 (2010)
Major hurricanes11 (2015)0 (many,2003)
Named storms39 (1964)14 (2010)
Typhoons26 (1964)5 (1999)
Super typhoons11 (1965,1997)1 (1999,2010)

Table5

CategoryAverageMaximumYearsMinimumYears
Named storms (including subtropical storms)11.728200541983
Hurricanes6.3>15200521982,2013
Major Hurricanes2.4720050many times, last 2013
USA landfalling hurricanes1.761985, 2004, 2005 +0many, last 2015
> USA landfalling major hurricanes0.6420050many, last 2015

Total number of tropical cyclone hits by country

RankNationHits
1United States of America268
2China230
3Philippines176
4Mexico134
5Japan133
6Cuba79
7Australia66
8Bahamas61
9Vietnam45
10Madagascar30
* Please keep in mind that all text is machine-generated, we do not bear any responsibility, and you should always get advice from professionals before taking any actions

Model evaluation

Projecting future changes in TC activity involves two problems: projecting changes in relevant environmental factors that can affect TC activity and projecting changes in TC activity giving set of changes in relevant environmental factors. Confidence in future TC projections relies on confidence in both of these tasks and will depend on three main factors: 1 level of scientific understanding of physical mechanisms underlying project changes; 2 robustness of TC projections across MODELS / studies and our confidence in the capability of MODELS for making such TC projections and related environmental projections, as discuss below; and 3 existence or not of supporting evidence for future project TC changes base on detection of anthropogenic signals in observations. The level of understanding of physical mechanisms is usually enhanced by the existence of generally accepted theory or strong mechanistic understanding, as opposed to cases where such theory or process understanding is at an earlier stage of development.

* Please keep in mind that all text is machine-generated, we do not bear any responsibility, and you should always get advice from professionals before taking any actions.

* Please keep in mind that all text is machine-generated, we do not bear any responsibility, and you should always get advice from professionals before taking any actions

Summary and conclusions

The numerical model used in this work was the Advanced Research version of Weather Research and Forecasting model version 3. 3. Three two-way nested domains were used with 35 vertical levels, model top at 10 hPa, 202 181 181 163, and 259 259 grid points in horizontal, and grid spacings of 40. 5 13. 5, and 4. 5 km For D1, D2, and D3, respectively. Initial and boundary conditions were provided by 1 1 and 6-hourly final analyses of the Global Forecast System from the National Centers For Environmental Prediction. Grell-Devenyi cumulus scheme For outermost domain, WRF single-moment 6-class microphysics scheme with graupel, and Yonsei State University scheme for planetary boundary layer processes were used in this work. The WRF-base EnKF System used in this work is the same as in Z09 and WZ12, which were originally developed for Regional-scale Data assimilation in Meng and Zhang. Ensemble size was 60. Initial ensemble members were generated by adding perturbations, which were randomly sampled from the default cv3 background error covariance option in WRF 3DVar package, to FNL / NCEP analysis Data at 0000 UTC on 23 July 2012. Perturb variables include horizontal wind components, potential temperature and mixing ratio for water vapor, and standard deviations of 2 m S 1 for wind, 1 K for temperature, and 0. 5 g kg 1 For mixing ratio approximate by analysis error of FNL Data. Similar perturbations were also used to represent boundary conditions and uncertainties of the ensemble. The Covariance relaxation method proposed by Zhang et al. Was used to inflate background error covariance with a relaxation coefficient of 0. 8. Data assimilation was performed for all domains. Prognostic variables of perturbation potential temperature, vertical velocity, horizontal wind components, mixing ratio For water vapor, cloud water, rainwater, perturbation geopotential, perturbation dry air mass in column, surface pressure, and perturbation pressure were update. The Successive covariance localization method was used with horizontal localization Radius of influence of 1215 405, and 135 km for D1, D2, and D3, respectively, using the fifth-order correlation function proposed by Gaspari and Cohn. ROI in vertical direction was set to model depth. This approach has been adopted in several previous papers. Radial velocity data from Guangzhou radar located on the southern China coast was assimilated by EnKF. This is an S-band Doppler radar that is similar to WSR-88Ds of the United States. Give that the Chinese Doppler radar network is still in the development stage, and there is no uniform software to process radar observations, considerable amount of our initial effort was invested into decoding and quality control data. We first converted full-3D-volume radial velocity Data to a format equivalent to that of Level-II Data from WSR-88D. NCAR radar editing software was then used to do velocity unfolding manually.


Global Warming and Hurricanes

Observed records of Atlantic Hurricane activity show some correlation, on multi-year time-scales, between local tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures and Power Dissipation Index see for example Fig. 3 on this EPA Climate Indicators site. PDI is an aggregate measure of Atlantic Hurricane activity, combining frequency, intensity, and duration of hurricanes in a single Index. Both Atlantic SSTs and PDI have risen sharply since the 1970s, and there is some evidence that PDI levels in recent years are higher than in previous active Atlantic Hurricane era in the 1950s and 60s. Model-base Climate Change detection / attribution studies have linked increasing tropical Atlantic SSTs to increasing greenhouse gases, but proposed links between increasing greenhouse gases and Hurricane PDI or frequency has been based on statistical correlations. The Statistical linkage of Atlantic Hurricane PDI to Atlantic SST suggests at least possibility of large anthropogenic influence on Atlantic hurricanes. If this statistical relation between tropical Atlantic SSTs and Hurricane activity is used to infer future changes in Atlantic Hurricane activity, implications are sobering: large increases in tropical Atlantic SSTs projected for late 21st Century would imply very substantial increases in Hurricane destructive potential-roughly 300 % increase in PDI by 2100. On other hand, Swanson and others note that Atlantic Hurricane Power Dissipation is also well-correlate with other SST indices besides tropical Atlantic SST alone, and in particular with indices of Atlantic SST relative to tropical mean SST. This is in fact a crucial distinction, because while the statistical relationship between Atlantic hurricanes and local Atlantic SST shown in the upper Panel of Figure 1 would imply very large increases in Atlantic Hurricane activity due to 21 Century greenhouse warming, alternative statistical relationship between PDI and relative SST measure shown in lower Panel of Figure 1 would imply only modest future long-term trends of Atlantic Hurricane activity with greenhouse warming. In the latter case, alternative relative SST measure in the lower Panel do not change very much over the 21 century, even with substantial Atlantic warming projections from climate models, because, crucially, warming project for the tropical Atlantic in models is not very different from that project for the tropics as a whole. The key question then is: Which of two future Atlantic Hurricane scenarios inferred from statistical relations in Figure 1 is more likely? To try to gain insight on this question, we have first attempt to go beyond ~50 year historical record of Atlantic hurricanes and SST to examine even longer records of Atlantic tropical storm activity and second to examine dynamical models of Atlantic Hurricane activity under global warming conditions. These separate approaches are discussed below. To gain more insight on this problem, we have attempted to analyze much longer records of Atlantic Hurricane activity.

* Please keep in mind that all text is machine-generated, we do not bear any responsibility, and you should always get advice from professionals before taking any actions.

* Please keep in mind that all text is machine-generated, we do not bear any responsibility, and you should always get advice from professionals before taking any actions

Introduction

The impact of future climate change on tropical cyclone activities has been examined in many previous studies, which closely agree with one another in terms of global average. A recent review paper suggests that global-mean TC genesis frequency is likely to decrease by 634 % but TC intensities are likely to increase by 211 % in warmer climate 1. However, project shifts in major genesis locations and TC pathways within each Ocean basin vary widely among previous studies 1 2 3. Studies based on High-resolution climate models project large inter-model spread in simulated TC occurrences since model results are sensitive to specifics in model formulations and experimental designs such as physical parameterizations 4 5 6 7 8, resolutions 9 10 11 12 13, and TC detection algorithms 14 15 16. Although multi-model ensembles can enhance statistical confidence in TC projections, it is difficult for individual researchers or institutions to perform sufficient number of High-resolution climate model runs because of the need for large computing resources. To overcome this limitation, some recent studies suggest alternative approaches based on various statistical techniques, For example, climate-index-base statistical model 17 18, trajectory model based on future tropospheric mean flow 19, genesis potential indices 20 21 22 23, and random seeds of synthetic storms 24 25. These studies can give US good inference on future TC changes despite some limitations. One potential weakness is that empirical relationships derived from these studies For present climate might differ from those in future climate. However, considering advantages of statistical methods such as no requirement for high-computing power and ease of multi-model ensembles based on dozens of climate models, it is worthwhile to apply statistical methods to study future TC activity.

* Please keep in mind that all text is machine-generated, we do not bear any responsibility, and you should always get advice from professionals before taking any actions.

* Please keep in mind that all text is machine-generated, we do not bear any responsibility, and you should always get advice from professionals before taking any actions

Marco intensifies in western Caribbean

2020 Atlantic tropical cyclone statistics

Storm nameDates activeStorm category at peak intensityMax 1-min wind mph (km/h)Min. press. ( mbar )Areas affectedDamage ( USD )Deaths
ArthurJune 22 - June 26Tropical storm65992Mexico352
BerthaJuly 3 - July 5Tropical storm401002United States, CanadaMinimalNone
CristobalJuly 5 - July 16Category 2 hurricane110970Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, Bermuda, United States147.316
DollyJuly 30 - August 1Tropical storm451004Lesser AntillesNoneNone
EdouardAugust 3 - August 5Tropical storm451005Bahamas, United States>903
FayAugust 9 - August 17Tropical storm601002Lesser Antilles, Haiti, Bahamas, United States, CanadaMinimal1
GonzaloAugust 21 - September 2Category 3 hurricane125948Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, Bermuda, AzoresMinimalNone
HannaAugust 23 - August 27Category 1 hurricane80984Cuba, United States3156
IsaiasAugust 28 - September 1Tropical storm50998United StatesNoneNone
JosephineSeptember 2 - September 12Category 4 hurricane140937AzoresNone1
KyleSeptember 10 - September 14Category 3 hurricane120953Mexico525213
LauraSeptember 15 - September 29Category 1 hurricane85976Haiti, Bahamas, United States, Bermuda, Canada107.621
MarcoSeptember 16 - September 22Tropical storm60996NoneNoneNone
NanaSeptember 24 - October 3Category 4 hurricane155926Leeward Islands, Nicaragua, Honduras, Mexico23351,025
OmarOctober 6 - October 10Tropical storm451003NoneNoneNone
PauletteOctober 21 - October 28Category 1 hurricane80981Nicaragua, Honduras, Mexico, United States93516
SeventeenOctober 29 - October 31Tropical depression351007NoneNoneNone
ReneNovember 13 - November 19Category 5 hurricane165902Nicaragua, Honduras, Yucatan Peninsula, Cuba, United States, Bermuda27010106
12 systemsJune 22 - November 19165902$31.5 Billion1,410 Total

Tropical Storm Marco formed in the Northwest Caribbean at 11 pm EDT Saturday, August 21, making it the earliest thirteenth storm on record for the Atlantic Hurricane season. There is a tie for the previous record-earliest thirteenth storm of the season, with Lee on September 2 2011, and Maria on September 2 2005. At 2 pm EDT on Saturday, August 22, Center of Marco was located about 90 miles east-Northeast of Cancun, Mexico, heading North-Northwest at 12 mph with Central Pressure of 992 mb. Marco was taking advantage of favorable conditions to quickly intensify. In addition, Marco was in a moist large-Scale environment, with mid-level relative humidity of 70 %. SSTs near 30 degrees Celsius and light wind share of 5-10 knots also favoring development. Marco is a small storm, and small storms can intensify and weaken quickly. Radar images from Cuba show that Marco had built a nearly complete eyewall on Saturday morning.

* Please keep in mind that all text is machine-generated, we do not bear any responsibility, and you should always get advice from professionals before taking any actions.

Ranking of tropical cyclone hits by country since 1970

RankNation
1China
2Philippines
3Japan
4Mexico
5United States of America
6Australia
7Taiwan
8Vietnam
9Madagascar
10Cuba

Table

IntensityCasesMedian DamagePotential Damage
Tropical/Subtropical Storm118less than $1,000,0000
Hurricane Category 145$33,000,0001
Hurricane Category 229$336,000,00010
Hurricane Category 340$1,412,000,00050
Hurricane Category 410$8,224,000,000250
Hurricane Category 52$5,973,000,000500

Table2

Local Time ZoneTime Adjustment (hours)
Atlantic Daylight Time (ADT)-3
Atlantic Standard Time (AST) Eastern Daylight Time (EDT)-4
Eastern Standard Time (EST) Central Daylight Time (CDT)-5
Central Standard Time (CST) Mountain Daylight Time (MDT)-6
Mountain Standard Time (MST) Pacific Daylight Time (PDT)-7
Pacific Standard Time (PST) Alaskan Daylight Time (ADT)-8
Alaskan Standard Time (ASA)-9
Hawaiian Standard Time (HAW)-10
New Zealand Standard Time (NZT) International Date Line Time (IDLE)+12
Guam Standard Time (GST) Eastern Australian Standard Time (EAST)+10
Japan Standard Time (JST)+9
China Coast Time (CCT)+8
West Australia Standard Time (WAST)+7
Russian Time Zone 5 (ZP5)+6
Russian Time Zone 4 (ZP4)+5
Russian Time Zone 3 (ZP3)+4
Bagdad Time (BT) Russian Time Zone 2(ZP2)+3
Eastern European Time (EET) Russian Time Zone 1(ZP1)+2
Central European Time (CET) French Winter Time (FWT) Middle European Time (MET) Swedish Winter Time (SWT) Middle European Winter Time (MEWT)+1
Western European Time (WET) Greenwich Mean Time ( GMT )0

Table4

CategoryMaximumMinimum
Named storms28 (2005)4 (1983)
Hurricanes15 (2005)2 (1982,2013)
Major Hurricanes8 (1950)0 (many times,2013 last)
Named storms9 (2004)0 (1990)
Hurricanes6 + (1916,1985,2004,2005)0 (many,2015)
Major hurricanes4 (2005)0 (many,2015)
Named storms28 (1992)8 (1977,2010)
Hurricanes16 (1990,1992,2014,2015)3 (2010)
Major hurricanes11 (2015)0 (many,2003)
Named storms39 (1964)14 (2010)
Typhoons26 (1964)5 (1999)
Super typhoons11 (1965,1997)1 (1999,2010)

Table5

CategoryAverageMaximumYearsMinimumYears
Named storms (including subtropical storms)11.728200541983
Hurricanes6.3>15200521982,2013
Major Hurricanes2.4720050many times, last 2013
USA landfalling hurricanes1.761985, 2004, 2005 +0many, last 2015
> USA landfalling major hurricanes0.6420050many, last 2015

Total number of tropical cyclone hits by country

RankNationHits
1United States of America268
2China230
3Philippines176
4Mexico134
5Japan133
6Cuba79
7Australia66
8Bahamas61
9Vietnam45
10Madagascar30
* Please keep in mind that all text is machine-generated, we do not bear any responsibility, and you should always get advice from professionals before taking any actions

Sources

* Please keep in mind that all text is machine-generated, we do not bear any responsibility, and you should always get advice from professionals before taking any actions.

* Please keep in mind that all text is machine-generated, we do not bear any responsibility, and you should always get advice from professionals before taking any actions

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