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Excess mortality is a term used in epidemiology and public health that refers to the number of deaths from all causes during a crisis above and beyond what we would expect to see under normal conditions. 1 in this case, were interested in how deaths during COVID - 19 pandemic compare to the average number of deaths over the same period in previous years. Excess mortality is a more comprehensive measure of the total impact of pandemic on deaths than the confirmed COVID - 19 Death count alone. In addition to confirmed deaths, excess mortality capture COVID - 19 deaths that were not correctly diagnosed and reported 2 as well as deaths from other causes that are attributable to overall crisis conditions. 3 excess mortality can be measured in several ways. The simplest way is to take the raw number of deaths observed in give period in 2020 - say Week 10, which ends on 8 March 4 - and subtract the average number of deaths in that week over previous years, for example, last five. While the raw number of deaths helps give the US a rough sense of scale, this measure has its limitations, including being less comparable across countries due to large differences in populations. The measure that is more comparable across countries is P - score, which calculates excess mortality as the percentage difference between the number of weekly deaths in 2020 and the average number of deaths in the same week over the previous five years. For example, if a country had a P - score of 100% in give week in 2020, that would mean the death count for that week was 100% higher than - that is, double - average death count in the same week over the previous five years. While P - score is a useful measure, it too has limitations. For example, five - year average death count might be a relatively crude measure of normal deaths because it does not account for trends in population size or mortality. For more in - depth discussion of limitations and strengths of different measures of excess mortality, see our article with John Muellbauer and Janine Aron. Mortality data has been incomplete in recent weeks because of delays in death reporting. For example, based on a 2016 study, CDC estimates that death reporting in the US is approximately 27% completed within 2 weeks, 54% completed within 4 weeks, and at least 75% completed within 8 weeks of when death occur. 5 Similar delays in death reporting exist for all countries to varying extents. To avoid showing data that is incomplete and therefore inaccurate, we do not show the most recent 1 - 4 weeks of each countrys data series. Decisions about how many weeks to exclude are made separately for each country to only show data that is at least 80% complete, based on empirical studies of delays in Death reporting. 6 chart here shows excess mortality during pandemic for all ages using P - score.
On Friday, January 31, DELTA, AMERICAN and UNITED announced they would temporarily suspend all of their mainland China flights in response to the Coronavirus outbreak. United AIRLINES on Jan. 28 had announced it would cut 24 flights between the US and China for the first week of February. American AIRLINES on Jan. 29 had announced it would suspend flights from Los Angeles to Shanghai and Beijing from Feb. 9 through March 27, 2020. It will maintain its flight schedules from Dallas - Fort Worth to Shanghai and Beijing, as well as from Los Angeles and Dallas - Fort Worth to Hong Kong. Delta had not adjusted its schedule of direct flights from the US to China. It is the only airline with direct flights to not take action so far. The US State Department on January 30 issued Level 4: Do not Travel to China Alert. Previously, on January 29, advisory was set at lower Level 3: Reconsider Travel advising not to travel to Hubei Province: and Reconsider travel to the remainder of China. Cdc on Jan. 28 issued a Level 3 Warning, recommending that travelers avoid all nonessential travel to China. On January 17, CDC announced that 3 airports in the UNITED States would begin screening incoming passengers from China: SFO, JFK, and LAX. Other 2 airports were added subsequently, and on January 28, US Department of Health and Human Services announced that 15 additional US airports would begin screening incoming travelers from China. Below is the complete list of airports where screening for 2019 Novel Coronavirus is in place: Los Angeles International, San Francisco International, Chicago, hare New York JFK, Atlanta Hartsfield - Jackson International, Houston, George Bush Intercontinental, Dallas - Fort Worth International, San Diego International, Seattle - Tacoma International, Honolulu International Anchorage, Ted Stevens International Minneapolis -. Paul International, Detroit Metropolitan Miami International, Washington Dull International, Philadelphia International Newark Liberty International, Boston Logan International, El Paso International, Puerto Rico's San Juan Airport
Before the pandemic, Worldometer was best known for its acounters, which provide live estimates of numbers like the worldas population or number of cars produced this year. Its website indicates that revenue comes from advertising and licensing its products. The Covid - 19 crisis has undoubtedly boosted the websiteas popularity. Itas one of the top - ranking Google search results for coronavirus stats. In the past six months, Worldometeras pages have been shared about 2. 5 million, up from just 65 shares in the first six months of 2019, according to statistics provided by BuzzSumo, company that tracks social media engagement and provides insights into content.
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When Spanish Prime Minister Pedro SAnchez boasted of Spainas high rankings, he did pull his numbers out of thin air. On April 27, OECD wrongly ranked Spain eighth in testing per capita. Initially, OECD had used data from OWID to compile its statistics. But it source Spanish numbers independently because OWIDas data was incomplete. Mixed sources skew Spainas position in the ranking because it counts broader category of tests than other countriesa numbers. The organization corrected itself the next day, two hours before SAnchezas press conference, bumping Spain to 17 place. At a press conference on May 9, SAnchez evaded CNN question by pressing him on JHU studyas existence and listing governmentas numbers on testing totals instead. In comments made to a Spanish reporter the next day, Health Minister Salvador Illa continued to insist testing data had been released by JHU, though he pointed to Worldometer as the underlying source. Since Johns Hopkins gets its data from Worldometer, he argue, itas just as good.
This is according to IHMEs Global Burden of Disease study here. In Sub - Saharan Africa, Malaria is responsible for 12% of all child deaths. Wiesenfeld SL - Sickle - Cell trait in human biological and cultural evolution. Science. 157: 1134 - 40. Joy DA, Feng XR, Mu JB, et al. - Early origin and recent expansion of Plasmodium falciparum. Science. 300: 318 - 21. The estimate of around 55 000 deaths caused by Sickle Cell Disorder is according to the Global Burden of Disease study by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. The results are online here: https: / vizhub. Healthdata. Org / gbd - compare / See: Aidoo M, Terlouw DJ, Kolczak MS, McElroy PD, ter Kuile FO, Kariuki S, Nahlen BL, Lal AA, Udhayakumar V. - Protective Effects of Sickle Cell Gene Against Malaria Morbidity and Mortality. In Lancet 2002; 359: 1311 - 1312. See Robert Sallares - Malaria and Rome: History of Malaria in Ancient Italy and Robert Sallares, Abigail Bouwman and Cecilia Anderung - Spread of Malaria To Southern Europe in Antiquity: New Approaches To Old Problems. Online here. Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson, James. Robinson - reversal of Fortune: Geography and Institutions in the Making of Modern World Income Distribution. In Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 117, No. 4, pp. 1231 - 1294. Online here: ttps: / Economics. Mit. Edu / files / 4127 John Luke Gallup and Jeffrey D. Sachs - Economic Burden of Malaria https: / www. Ncbi. Nlm. Nih. Gov / books / NBK2624 / on History of first effective treatments See Kennedy - Brief History of Disease, Science and Medicine. On cause of Oliver Cromwell's death See FAQs at olivercromwell. Org, on Friedrich Schiller See Bayerischer Rundfunk here, on Abraham Lincoln See Physical Lincoln. Other famous victims - although it is not always possible to diagnose disease of historical figures - were German painter Albrecht Durer, WHO contracted disease in the Netherlands, and several popes, WHO died of disease as Malaria was very prevalent in Italy until recently. See Hay et al above and de Zulueta J. - Malaria and ecosystems: from prehistory to posteradication. In Parassitologia. 1994 August. 36: 7 - 15. World Bank - World Development Report - part I: Reshaping Economic Geography. Washington, DC: World Bank. Online here. The original map was published by Simon I Hay, Carlos Guerra, Andrew J Tatem, Abdisalan M Noor, and Robert W Snow - Global Distribution and population at Risk of Malaria: past, present, and future. In Lancet Infectious Diseases 2004 June; 4: 327 - 336. Doi: 10. 1016 / S1473 - 309901043 - 6. Https: / www. Thelancet. Com / journals / laninf / article / PIIS1473 - 309901043 - 6 / fulltext I have digitized Figure 1 using image tracing in Adobe Illustrator. Historical mapping of the prevalence of Malaria is based on the pioneering work of Lysenko in the 1960s: Lysenko AJ, Semashko IN. Geography of Malaria - medico - geographic profile of Ancient Disease. In: Lebedew AW, editor. Itogi Nauki: Medicinskaja Geografija. Academy of Sciences, USSR; Moscow: 1968. Pp. 25 - 146. Lysenko AJ, Beljaev AE - analysis of geographical Distribution of Plasmodium ovale. Bull World Health Organization; 40: 383 - 94. This is taken from the Statistical Atlas of 9 Censuss of the United States 1870. All maps and charts from the Statistical Atlas from 9 Census of the United States 1870 are online at Radical Cartography here.
Italy announced on Feb. 26 that it would relax its testing criteria to point that contacts linked to confirmed cases or recent travelers to outbreak areas would not be tested anymore, unless they show symptoms. South Korea is testing about 10 000 people per day, and is working to increase that to 15 000 to 20 000 per day, as of Feb. 27. They are installing drive through test facilities, which minimize hospital pressures and keep potential patients out of the system until they need access. Health authorities on Feb. 27 also started testing more than 210 000 members of the Shincheonji religious group in Daegu. On March. 2, Dr. Stephen Hahn, FDA Commissioner, announced that the US will have, by the end of week, ability to perform 1 million tests. The US CDC initially declined to test a patient who on Feb. 26 became the latest confirmed case in the US, and the first with unknown origin of infection. The patient, who was on ventilator with a suspected viral infection, was transferred from another hospital to UC Davis Medical Center on Feb. 19. The hospital's request to test for COVID - 19 was initially denied by CDC, as patients did not meet COVID - 19 testing criteria. Cdc on Feb. 27 issued new testing rules, for which many more people can now be tested for coronavirus. Just 12 of more than 100 public health labs in the US are currently able to test for COVID - 19 because of problems with test developed by CDC. The Agency can now screen only 350 - 500 samples per day. California Governor Gavin Newsom characterized the number of test kits available in the state as remarkably inadequate. As of Feb. 26, CDC had performed a total of 445 tests. For comparison, UK, with a population five times smaller than the US, has conducted over 7 000 tests. China tested 320 000 people in Guangdong over a three - week period. We will be adding other countries and more details in coming days.
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